U.S. AFRICOM airstrikes targeting al-Shabab in Somalia signal America’s deepening military involvement in the Horn of Africa, even as the strategic alliance with Somalia’s federal government threatens to alienate the breakaway region of Somaliland and potentially push it toward Chinese or Russian influence.
Key Takeaways
- Recent U.S. airstrikes targeted al-Shabab militants 40 miles northwest of Kismayo, Somalia, as part of ongoing counterterrorism operations.
- Somalia’s President Mohamud has offered the U.S. “exclusive operational control” of strategic bases, including Berbera in Somaliland, straining relations with the unrecognized breakaway state.
- Al-Shabab is regaining strength by exploiting political infighting and challenges with the new African Union peacekeeping mission (AUSSOM), which faces serious funding issues.
- The complex clan-based power-sharing system in Somalia continues to create governance challenges that terrorist groups exploit.
- If Western support falters, Somalia may turn to China or Russia, who have strategic interests in the region.
AFRICOM’s Escalating Military Campaign Against al-Shabab
U.S. Africa Command (AFRICOM) recently conducted targeted airstrikes against al-Shabab militants near Kismayo, Somalia, continuing America’s long-standing military involvement in the troubled Horn of Africa nation. The operation, carried out in coordination with the Federal Government of Somalia and Somali Armed Forces, targeted militants approximately 40 miles northwest of Kismayo. This strike represents just one of multiple recent U.S. military actions in Somalia, with AFRICOM reporting four separate airstrikes in April alone targeting both al-Shabab and ISIS-affiliated groups operating in the region.
“AFRICOM, alongside the Federal Government of Somalia and Somali Armed Forces, continues to take action to degrade al-Shabab’s ability to plan and conduct attacks that threaten the U.S. homeland, our forces, and our citizens abroad,” AFRICOM stated in its official announcement regarding the operation.
Military officials have been clear about the threat posed by the al-Qaeda-affiliated group, noting that al-Shabab “has proven both its will and capability to attack U.S. forces,” necessitating continued counterterrorism operations. The terrorist organization has maintained a presence in Somalia for decades, taking advantage of the country’s fractured political landscape and weak central government to establish territorial control and training bases for launching attacks throughout East Africa.
Somalia’s Strategic Offer and Somaliland Tensions
President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud’s government has significantly deepened military cooperation with the United States, recently offering “exclusive operational control” over critical infrastructure, including the Berbera and Baledogle air bases and the ports of Berbera and Bosaso. This move represents Somalia’s attempt to secure long-term American military support against al-Shabab, but it has created serious tensions with Somaliland, which declared independence from Somalia in 1991 and controls the strategic port city of Berbera.
“We Somalis are clans, subclans and sub-subclans,” said President Mohamud has acknowledged, acknowledging the complex identity politics that complicate governance in the region.
Somaliland has operated as a de facto independent state for over three decades, with its own government, security forces, currency, and electoral system. Despite this functional autonomy, it lacks international recognition, leaving its status in diplomatic limbo. President Mohamud’s offer of military bases in Somaliland territory to the United States without Somaliland’s consent has been viewed in Hargeisa, Somaliland’s capital, as an affront to its sovereignty and a potential military threat.
Al-Shabab’s Resurgence and Somalia’s Structural Challenges
Intelligence assessments indicate al-Shabab is regaining strength across Somalia, exploiting political infighting between the federal government and member states. The terrorist organization has adapted to U.S. counterterrorism pressure by decentralizing its operations and embedding within local communities. Making matters worse, the African Union Support and Stabilisation Mission in Somalia (AUSSOM), which replaced the previous AMISOM peacekeeping mission, faces severe funding shortfalls after the United States backed away from the UN-centered funding system.
Somalia’s federal system, inspired by Ethiopia’s model, continues to struggle with fundamental governance issues. The country’s provisional constitution left unresolved the distribution of responsibilities between the federal government and member states, creating ongoing jurisdictional disputes. Additionally, the indirect electoral mechanism that relies on clan elders to nominate parliament members who then elect the president has entrenched clan politics rather than fostering national unity.
The anti-al-Shabab coalition remains dangerously fragmented, with coordination problems among the Somalia National Army, clan militias, state security forces, and international peacekeepers. This disunity creates operational gaps that al-Shabab exploits to maintain territorial control in rural areas and infiltrate government-held urban centers. With federal elections scheduled for May 2026 already threatened by rising tensions, the window for stabilizing Somalia before the next electoral cycle is rapidly closing.
Geopolitical Stakes and Great Power Competition
The Horn of Africa represents a strategic chokepoint for global maritime commerce, controlling access to the Red Sea and the Suez Canal. Somalia’s prolonged instability threatens European security interests due to potential refugee flows and terrorist threats. If Western support falters due to donor fatigue or shifting priorities, Somalia might increasingly turn to China or Russia for security and economic assistance, as both powers have demonstrated growing interest in establishing footholds in the region.
China has already invested heavily in port infrastructure across the Horn of Africa, including a military base in neighboring Djibouti. Russia has sought to expand its influence through military cooperation agreements with various regional actors. The continued U.S. military presence through AFRICOM represents not just counterterrorism operations but also a strategic competition to prevent adversarial powers from gaining dominance in this critical region.
As AFRICOM continues its air campaign against al-Shabab, the true measure of success will depend not just on battlefield victories but on strengthening Somalia’s governance systems and resolving the political standoff with Somaliland. Military operations alone cannot deliver lasting stability to this strategically vital but chronically troubled region without addressing these fundamental issues.
