COVID-era school shutdowns have led to an alarming 89% surge in chronic absenteeism nationwide, with low-income students bearing the brunt of a crisis that continues despite schools reopening.
Key Takeaways
- Chronic absenteeism has more than doubled in many states since 2019, with rates jumping from 17% to 37% in states like North Carolina, Texas, and Virginia.
- Low-income students are disproportionately affected, with socioeconomic factors—not race—being the primary driver of attendance gaps.
- Despite a slight improvement from the 28% peak in 2022 to 23% in 2023, absenteeism remains significantly higher than pre-pandemic levels.
- Traditional interventions like home visits and incentive programs have shown limited success in addressing this persistent crisis.
- Some pandemic emergency measures, including relaxed graduation requirements and online make-up work, may have inadvertently normalized and perpetuated absenteeism.
The Widening Gap Between Rich and Poor Students
The devastating impact of pandemic school closures continues to reverberate through America’s education system, with chronic absenteeism—missing 10% or more of the school year—emerging as one of the most persistent problems. Research consistently shows that low-income students have experienced the most dramatic increases in missed school days, creating a troubling new normal that threatens to further entrench educational inequality. By 2022, national chronic absenteeism had skyrocketed 89% compared to pre-pandemic levels, with many states still reporting rates far above their 2019 baselines.
“The income gap really was the main driver that showed up over and over again,” explains Morgan Polikoff, education professor at USC and lead researcher studying the crisis. His team’s findings emphasize that while the media often focuses on racial disparities in education, the data clearly shows socioeconomic status as the primary predictor of attendance problems.
The State-by-State Crisis
The severity of the chronic absenteeism crisis varies dramatically across states, revealing significant differences in both the impact of pandemic policies and recovery efforts. Alabama has managed to bring its rates down to 15% in 2024 from a peak of 18% in 2022. At the other extreme, Washington, D.C.—long controlled by progressive policies—saw nearly half of all students chronically absent at the height of the crisis, with rates still hovering around 40% today. This geographic disparity suggests that conservative-led states may be having more success addressing the problem.
“Absences are both more common for everybody, but they are also more extreme,” notes Jacob Kirksey, researcher and assistant professor at Texas Tech University
The data from North Carolina and Virginia reveals a particularly troubling pattern. Low-income students in these states have experienced persistent increases in absenteeism rates that far outpace their more affluent peers. This growing attendance gap threatens to create a permanent underclass of students who miss critical learning opportunities, perpetuating cycles of poverty and dependency that liberal policies have failed to address for generations.
Failed Interventions and Unintended Consequences
Despite well-intentioned efforts to combat chronic absenteeism, including home visits, phone calls, and incentive programs, the problem persists at alarming levels. The limited success of these traditional interventions raises serious questions about whether educational bureaucracies are addressing the root causes or merely treating symptoms. Some experts suggest that pandemic-era accommodations, including relaxed graduation requirements and online make-up options, may have inadvertently normalized absence patterns that are proving difficult to reverse.
“When looking in absolute terms, the most disadvantaged groups are typically more likely to have seen larger increases in chronic absenteeism,” says Morgan Polikoff, education professor at USC
Anecdotal evidence suggests another troubling trend: some students have simply grown accustomed to staying home. As one 21-year-old bluntly put it: “Absenteeism is what the corona did.” This attitude reflects how pandemic policies may have fundamentally altered students’ relationship with school attendance, particularly in disadvantaged communities where in-person education provides structure and opportunity that cannot be replicated online.
Moving Forward: Conservative Solutions to a Progressive Problem
The absenteeism crisis offers a stark lesson about the unintended consequences of progressive education policies that kept schools closed far longer than necessary. While liberal educators continue wringing their hands about the problem, some communities are taking more practical approaches. Virginia has implemented targeted solutions like adjusting bus routes and creating alternative centers for suspended students. Other districts are addressing community-specific challenges including transportation issues and housing insecurity that disproportionately affect low-income families.
“I have a question that keeps me up at night. That question is ‘What’s the new normal going to be?'” worries Nat Malkus, deputy director of education policy at the American Enterprise Institute.
The answer to Malkus’s question will largely depend on whether educational leaders can move beyond the failed progressive policies that exacerbated the crisis in the first place. President Trump’s administration has consistently advocated for school choice and local control of education—approaches that empower parents and communities to implement common-sense solutions tailored to their specific circumstances rather than one-size-fits-all federal mandates that have repeatedly failed America’s most vulnerable students.
