Critical Missile Gap Exposes U.S. Vulnerability

Four rockets pointed towards the sky

U.S. military lacks sufficient missile stockpiles to defend against China in a prolonged conflict, as Tomahawk missiles and other critical munitions reach dangerously low levels amid global tensions and foreign aid commitments.

Key Takeaways

  • The U.S. could deplete its stockpile of certain critical munitions within one week in a potential conflict with China, according to military wargames.
  • America’s defense industrial base is severely constrained by workforce shortages, supply chain issues, and manufacturing limitations, hampering efforts to replenish dwindling stockpiles.
  • Multiple simultaneous commitments to Israel, Ukraine, and Taiwan are straining U.S. munitions supplies beyond sustainable levels.
  • Acting Chief of Naval Operations James Kilby has warned Congress about serious shortages in Tomahawk missiles, torpedoes, and anti-ship weapons.
  • The Former Biden administration’s energy policies and excessive regulations have undermined domestic manufacturing capacity, creating a national security vulnerability.

Critical Defense Shortfalls Threaten National Security

The U.S. military faces a severe shortage of essential defense missiles that could leave America vulnerable in potential conflicts with adversaries like China. Acting Chief of Naval Operations James Kilby recently testified to Congress about the rapid depletion of the U.S. stockpile of Tomahawk missiles, along with concerning shortages in torpedoes and anti-ship weapons. Military experts and lawmakers have expressed alarm that current inventory levels cannot sustain any extended military engagement, creating a significant national security risk at a time when global tensions are escalating across multiple regions.

“If we go to war with China, it’s going to be bloody and there’s going to be casualties and it’s going to take plenty of munitions, so our stocks need to be full,” warned James Kilby during congressional testimony.

This critical situation has been developing for years, but has been exacerbated by simultaneous commitments to multiple allies. The former Biden administration had transferred significant quantities of bombs and shells to Israel following Hamas’ October 7 attack, while also sending large amounts of materiel to Ukraine and preparing arms shipments to Taiwan. These competing demands have stretched America’s defense industrial base beyond its capacity, forcing difficult prioritization decisions that ultimately leave gaps in our own national defense readiness.

Industrial Base Limitations Compound the Problem

The Pentagon is struggling to meet munitions requirements due to severe limitations in America’s defense industrial base. Historical neglect of munitions production in favor of platforms like ships and planes has left the country ill-prepared for current threats. Military planners have conducted wargames predicting that in a conflict with China, the U.S. could deplete certain critical munitions in less than a week—an alarming timeline that highlights the severity of current shortages and the inadequacy of existing production capacity to meet wartime demands.

“There are very few places where we have what you might call surplus stockpiles,” said Mark Cancian, a senior adviser at the Center for Strategic and International Studies think tank.

Oklahoma Republican Rep. Tom Cole has explicitly warned that the U.S. lacks munitions for a long-term conflict. The problem extends beyond just the missiles themselves workforce shortages, complex supply chains, and a diminished manufacturing base all contribute to the inability to rapidly scale up production. While Congress has authorized multiyear contracts for critical munitions to ensure steady demand, lawmakers have been hesitant to approve a dedicated critical munitions acquisition fund that could help address the shortfall more comprehensively.

America’s Manufacturing Decline Creates National Security Vulnerability

Rep. Eric Burlison has highlighted how America’s manufacturing decline has become a serious national security issue, pointing to the former Biden administration’s hostile policies toward domestic production. The U.S. now manufactures just 11% of the world’s GDP, compared to China’s 40%, a stark reversal from America’s historical manufacturing dominance. This decline leaves the nation dependent on foreign supply chains for critical defense components at a time when global tensions are rising and America’s military readiness is being tested across multiple fronts.

“We have been hostile to our manufacturing sector through our crazy energy policies and crazy EPA regulations and OSHA, right? We’ve driven so much manufacturing overseas, and that’s what Trump has recognized, and it has now become a national security issue,” said Rep. Eric Burlison during congressional discussions on the missile shortage.

Heritage Foundation expert Brent Sadler has noted that this missile shortage has been an ongoing issue for over a decade, with discussions about the problem being classified during the first Trump administration to prevent adversaries from understanding the full extent of the vulnerability. President Trump’s focus on rebuilding America’s manufacturing base addresses this critical national security concern. The historic $142 billion defense sales agreement with Saudi Arabia announced by the White House under President Trump’s leadership represents a clear commitment to strengthening strategic partnerships in the face of these challenges.

“It goes back over 10 years when I was at Pacific Command, now Indo-Pacific Command, and it was General Mattis when he became Secretary of Defense Mattis during Trump’s first term, he classified all the discussions, so the public has been kind of obscured from understanding how bad it is, but it’s only gotten marginally better,” explained Brent Sadler from the Heritage Foundation.

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